lundi 28 mars 2011

On en oubliait presque le budget...


Les soulèvements sur la scène internationale et les catastrophes au Japon on jeté beaucoup d'ombre sur les négociations budgétaires entre la Maison blanche et les républicains de la Chambre des représentants. Voici un article qui expose la stratégie d'Obama dans ce dossier. Obama aurait retenu des leçons de Bill Clinton que se trouvait dans une situation similaire il y a quelques années...

That is almost certainly why Obama continues to keep Republican hopes alive that he will risk infuriating his own base by embracing a deal on entitlement reform. If they plunge ahead without him in the House, the Republicans will end up painting a bulls-eye on the back of every vulnerable GOP congressperson who votes for a budget resolution that cuts Social Security and Medicare. The Democratic Senate, on the other hand, can be counted on to defeat such a budget. That would then allow the president to propose a “grand bargain” that forces Republicans to defy their own base on tax increases.
Another tactic Obama might use is to insist that any deal on entitlement reform include a cease-fire in the Republican assault on “Obamacare”—which, after all, provided more Medicare savings than any recent legislation enacted by either party. The odds that Republicans will give up on Obamacare bashing are even lower than the odds they will risk the wrath of conservative activists by supporting a tax increase. But so long as the White House keeps open the possibility of a deal including entitlement reform, the conditions he attaches will look more reasonable to the persuadable segment of the electorate than the insistence of Republicans on entitlement cuts the public doesn’t support in the first place. Under the pressure of their own fiscal-crisis rhetoric, Republicans might even begin squabbling amongst themselves over a possible deal, or suffer their own Tea Party rebellion.
It’s understandable that many Democrats would prefer Obama to discard his perpetually unrequited talk of bipartisanship and make the 2012 elections a referendum on public support for unpopular budget cuts. It may eventually come to that. But for now, let the president play his hand. It’s a strong one, if he plays it right.

POur l'article au complet: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-03-26/obamas-budget-fight-how-hell-out-game-the-republicans/?cid=bs:archive6#

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